In football matches, draw outcomes will not happen so rarely that you should not bet on them. If you look at the line for the matches of some championship, you will notice that the quotes for a draw are often higher than 3.5. It is among these bets that there are always many value positions.
In this article, we will look at how to bet on a draw in football matches, which teams are suitable for this technique, and what a bettor should pay attention to.
Choosing teams to bet on a draw
Before betting on a draw in football, one thing should be well understood. A bettor should always find a value event based on the statistics of past matches. Having received data on the number of draws between teams, we determine the chances of a draw between them in the upcoming match. We convert the percentage odds into odds and compare it with the odds of the bookmaker pinup-azerbaycan.com. If it is lower, then you can bet.
In the Bundesliga, we were interested in clubs Wolfsburg, Freiburg, Werder Bremen, Hertha. The most compromising team turned out to be Wolfsburg, which has 15 draws in 34 matches. But for other teams, more than 30% of the fights ended in a draw.
Even more attractive are the statistics of the home games of these teams:
Here we see that Wolfsburg has almost 50% of draws at home, while Hertha and Werder have 41% of such fights each.
If we look at the odds of bookmakers for draws with the participation of these teams, we will see that they vary from 2.8 to 3.3. If we take the indicators of Werder and Hertha in home matches, then the minimum odds for this outcome with their participation should be 100/41 = 2.43. As for Wolfsburg, the quotes should approach 2 on a draw at home. Thus, we have determined that it is profitable to bet on a draw for these clubs in the long run.
According to the same methodology, promising teams are determined for betting on a draw in other championships.
Choice of championships for betting on a draw
Bettors are well aware that championships are top and bottom in terms of performance. Low scoring championships are best for betting on a draw. First of all, we are talking about the Greek, Italian and Portuguese leagues.
If we talk about Greece, the top division fits well. Here, teams often play 0-0 and 1-1. The statistics of the Greek championship will tell you better than any words:
Teams with more than 30% draw outcomes are highlighted here. The specificity of the Greek championship lies in the fact that here the middle peasants with low performance often play with each other in a draw. Therefore, when analyzing bets, we always focus on such teams.
Probably the most promising championship for betting on a draw is Serie B. Let's take a look at the final statistics of this tournament:
We have selected 8 clubs that have at least 38% of their matches played in a draw at home. The average coefficient for this outcome with the participation of these clubs was 3.1. For some bookmakers, it reached 3.4. Betting under such conditions is definitely profitable.
When choosing matches for a bet, it is optimal for the host team to have at least 35% of draw matches at home, and the guests - 30% away.
However, not necessarily, the championship must be grassroots. As you can see, on the example of the productive Bundesliga, there are clubs that often reduce fights to a draw. Often, quotes in high-scoring championships are higher. Therefore, if there are compromise teams in the riding championships, then this is a good find for bettors who bet on a draw.
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